Veridian Electoral

Methodology

The pipeline, the standing rules, and where we refuse.

Method is what makes a figure reviewable by someone who does not trust us. Each stage names the artifact it leaves behind, each rule holds in every engagement, and each refusal carries a code that can be looked up.

The pipeline

Five stages, each leaving an artifact

StageWhat happensEvidence artifact
CaptureTally sheets are captured and hashed at the moment of capture, with the capturing role recorded rather than an individual.Capture set, with the image hash per artifact
VerifyEach sheet is read against that country's acta format and human-confirmed; automated extraction never stands alone.Verification record per station, with its proving basis
AggregateVerified records only are aggregated, with a stated interval and a finite-population correction on the sampled frame.Aggregation report, with the interval log and method note
ReconcileVerified figures are compared line by line with a hashed snapshot of the official record; nothing is dropped.Reconciliation report, with the full N/A log
PreserveParts are frozen, hashed, chained to a root, and archived, with a delivery hash recorded in the custody record. A correction is a new artifact, never an edit.erm_evidence/1 bundle, with its manifest and delivery hash

Standing rules

Rules that hold in every engagement

Provenance on every number

No figure is published without its source, or without an N/A that carries a reason. A blank and a zero are both refused.

Attribution discipline

A figure is attributed to the record it came from, never to Veridian's judgment. We report what a record says, and name the record.

No win-calls

We do not publish, imply, or confirm an outcome before certification, and we do not confirm one on request afterwards.

Aggregate-only

The smallest unit we publish is an aggregate unit. Individual-level data is not collected, not stored, and not accepted from a client.

Human accountability

A named role answers for every verification and every refusal. No figure and no denial is attributed to a system alone.

Rehearsed reachability

Official-source reachability is rehearsed against the real endpoint before the contest. Availability is never assumed on the day.

Confidence intervals

A number without a band is not a finding

  1. Never a point estimate without a band. A bare percentage is published as a refusal, not as a result.
  2. The interval is withheld, with a stated reason, when the sample is coverage-based rather than probability-based. A band computed on a non-probability sample is arithmetic, not inference.
  3. Identical bands across strata are a refusal, not a result. A degenerate or uniform band means the computation failed, and the reason code is published in its place.

Published, probability sample

54.3 %± 1.2 · 95 % intervalIllustrative · synthetic · not an engagement

95 % interval, finite-population correction applied · verified records, 1,412 of 1,480 stations


Withheld, coverage-based sample

interval withheld · non_probability_sample

No interval is published for this frame, and no point estimate is published in its place.

Refusal rules

Refusal rules, and the code each one publishes

A refusal is a finding. It names what is withheld, the reason code it rests on, and the log entry that records it. Codes are stable across engagements and across languages.

Reason codeWhat is withheld, and why
non_probability_sampleThe frame is coverage-based, not a probability sample. No interval is published, and no point estimate is published in its place.
coverage_below_thresholdVerified coverage for the unit is below the protocol threshold. No figure is published for that unit; it publishes as N/A with this code.
official_snapshot_absentNo official-record snapshot could be fetched and hashed. Reconciliation is not attempted, and no delta is published.
degenerate_bandThe interval computation returned a zero-width or uniform band. The band is withheld and the failure is published in its place.
unreadable_tallyThe tally sheet cannot be read to the standard by a human confirmer. The station publishes as N/A with this code, never as a zero.

Capability status

Production-proven and simulation-proven, kept apart

The qualifier column is the wording we use everywhere, verbatim. If a capability is simulation-proven, that phrase travels with it into every deck, proposal, and report.

CapabilityStatusVerbatim qualifier
Tally-sheet verification, human-confirmedProduction-proven“Run at national scale in a certified contest.”
Independent aggregation with stated intervalsEngine capability — accuracy not claimed“Intervals were withheld in engagement #1 (non-probability sample); no published interval has yet resolved.”
Reconciliation against the official recordProduction-proven“Run at national scale in a certified contest.”
Automated tally-sheet extractionSimulation-proven“A three-tally-sheet live demonstration, plus a pipeline designed for national scale. It has not run live at national scale.”
Tamper detection on the evidence bundleSimulation-proven“Three constructed tamper cases, detected on every CI run against a synthetic bundle.”
Content-credential chainSimulation-proven“C2PA-ready: structured for C2PA assertions, and not certified by any C2PA authority.”

Request an engagement

Tell us the contest, the date, and the artifact you need. We reply with scope, refusal conditions, and a price against the published floor.

Request an engagement

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